Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 2.406056 2.555166 2.718691 2.913424 3.141951 3.405639 3.739289
2025-09-07 2.260365 2.448737 2.665289 2.938123 3.281516 3.713471 4.325331
2025-09-14 2.094522 2.292251 2.525213 2.827878 3.224479 3.750661 4.555298
2025-09-21 2.014416 2.226764 2.483166 2.827013 3.297513 3.960689 5.075386
2025-09-28 1.924326 2.140920 2.406664 2.770673 3.283933 4.040013 5.409611
2025-10-05 1.898537 2.131631 2.424263 2.837831 3.448364 4.414216 6.413912
2025-10-12 1.886483 2.137704 2.460586 2.932207 3.664673 4.926072 8.068629
2025-10-19 1.837170 2.092235 2.424298 2.918401 3.708841 5.143984 9.233806
2025-10-26 1.799623 2.059870 2.403160 2.923919 3.783875 5.441408 11.076701
2025-11-02 1.745400 2.002775 2.344486 2.867886 3.746383 5.494705 12.120658
2025-11-09 1.704972 1.962401 2.306951 2.841143 3.756583 5.657180 14.146178
2025-11-16 1.671349 1.929759 2.278505 2.826080 3.785421 5.872835 17.497479
2025-11-23 1.637787 1.897500 2.251205 2.814418 3.826224 6.154364 24.571568
2025-11-30 1.616487 1.880879 2.245109 2.835601 3.932021 6.660528 62.363417
2025-12-07 1.561478 1.815939 2.166004 2.732298 3.779532 6.359854 49.912053
2025-12-14 1.538047 1.794021 2.148992 2.730555 3.831980 6.713259 NaN
2025-12-21 1.502017 1.753470 2.102962 2.677630 3.773554 6.692589 NaN
2025-12-28 1.498721 1.758412 2.124284 2.739259 3.963476 7.637382 NaN
2026-01-04 1.501438 1.771737 2.158573 2.825921 4.226855 9.207674 NaN
2026-01-11 1.479671 1.749391 2.137433 2.812826 4.257455 9.750197 NaN
2026-01-18 1.463247 1.734201 2.126657 2.817624 4.332620 10.673955 NaN
2026-01-25 1.434542 1.700573 2.086145 2.765735 4.259354 10.572654 NaN
2026-02-01 1.413228 1.677176 2.060915 2.740878 4.252884 10.966271 NaN